Zaun and Conlin Team Up to Help Branstad. Wait. What?

You can say what you will about Terry Branstad, but the guy knows a key to winning a campaign is spreading the battle across numerous fronts. This divides the opposition into smaller forces and depletes their resources. In years when he was running, Branstad made sure strong and weak Democrats up and down the ballot faced serious challengers. He never wanted a single candidate on the opposing side to feel confident enough to divert effort and money to races other than their own. Most important, a full host of competitive races builds enthusiasm and creates momentum for the whole team. And, after a walloping in 2008, the GOP is hungry for some excitement and energy. This Branstad strategy will be revived in 2010 and it is likely to provide Republicans with a huge advantage.

Example #1 – Brad Zaun
Former Urbandale Mayor and current State Senator Brad Zaun is going to challenge Congressman Leonard Boswell. Zaun and Branstad are not exactly soul mates, but they are equally tireless campaigners who are willing to shake hands, knock on doors and fearlessly walk into a room full of detractors, plant their feet and forcefully defend their stances. I know this, because I have seen them both do it. Sometimes they changed minds and won votes, sometimes they didn’t. No matter the outcome, they were ready and continued to do it over and over, every day until the polls closed. Zaun and Branstad are the Energizer Bunnies of retail politics.

Zaun’s challenge is likely to be the toughest Boswell has faced since he was first elected to Congress. Yes, Zaun is a Republican in name and philosophy, and the District leans Democrat. But, never has Boswell faced a candidate so willing and so comfortable going beyond talking points and basic political philosophy. As a single dad, former small businessman and elected official, Brad walks what he talks. Better yet, when he talks he sounds more like the guy at the hardware store than another polished and scripted pol. If this race was to be won on likeability alone, Zaun is the runaway favorite. We all know there is more to it than that, but Boswell will not have a cakewalk next year. Check that general election race off of Branstad’s list.

Example #2 – Chuck Grassley
One race for which Branstad did not go out and recruit a candidate is U.S. Senate. Republican Chuck Grassley is running for what may seem like the hundredth time. You might think Branstad would want Grassley undistracted and unencumbered so he could help elsewhere. Not so fast. Grassley is not that interested in assisting other Republicans win in Iowa and having him coast to re-election would be bad for Branstad. A challenge to Grassley makes him spend more time here and forces him to help where he may not usually.

Interestingly, Branstad was given a gift on this one. His 1982 opponent for governor, Roxanne Conlin, has jumped in to challenge Grassley. While Conlin will have plenty of money and energy, if she should begin to lag, Branstad would be wise to help covertly so that the Conlin effort does not fizzle out too soon. Having Grassley engaged in a somewhat serious challenge means Grassley will campaign hard. This will add interest, excitement and momentum. Multiple close races will bring out the base and help everybody on the Republican ticket. The biggest beneficiary on said ticket will be Terry E. Branstad.

The Branstad Strategy
I believe Branstad and friends were unrealistic about how easy it was going be for him to get his old job back. The right will not be appeased with quiet backroom conversations followed by code words from the podium. Branstad is going to have to risk losing a few Democrat and Independent November general election voters in order to secure the nomination in June. The primary could prove to be a bit of a slog for him. But, if Branstad recruits and supports a full slate of candidates, he will be well positioned to build enough energy to sweep him back up and into Terrace Hill. I bet you will see a few more Zauns jumping into the fray in the weeks to come.
2010 is shaping up to be an interesting election year after all.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.