Iowa Caucus Tie Trips Romney

Last night’s Iowa Caucuses may have produced the worst possible outcome for Mitt Romney. He would have been better off with an 8 point trouncing by Ron Paul than a virtual tie with Rick Santorum.

Mitt Romney’s long, bumbling walk to the nomination awkwardly continued last night. It seems no matter what Romney does, only 25% of Republicans support him. He got an astonishingly similar number of Iowa Caucus votes last night as he did four years ago. It has to be incredibly frustrating to raise millions and millions of dollars, and pour your heart out on the campaign trail only to discover you gained no ground whatsoever. Yet, on trudges the former Massachusetts governor.

Ron Paul represents a growing and vocal segment of the GOP and the electorate. Pundits, party hacks and political consultants have foolishly underestimated Paul’s ability to organize and the appeal of his message. However, Paul is limited in his ability to attract voters. Paul’s own campaign admits they avoid reaching out to voters over 60 because they find little support in that demographic. Put aside the irony that the only septuagenarian in the race does not appeal to his peers, a group that votes in high numbers – Paul is highly unlikely to build a winning national campaign because his libertarian message appeals to a limited audience. Combine this with his age and you begin to wonder why Paul does not have a visible bruise from hitting his head on his political ceiling.

I could argue (and have) Rick Santorum has limited electoral appeal. He is a conservative’s conservative. However, Santorum’s impressive victory in Iowa last night will have Republicans across the country giving the Santorum campaign bus tires a thoughtful kick over the next few days – a bus fueled by what will be an impressive influx of newly donated cash. Santorum is the latest candidate to fill the anti-Romney role, but unlike third place finisher Paul; Santorum is attractive to the Republican Party’s natural base.

Rick Santorum can energize a core group of voters. He won his first congressional race running on an economic message and can connect with voters in a personal way the sometimes-robotic Romney cannot.

Santorum may not be able to stop Romney’s slog to the Republican Convention in Tampa, but Santorum’s new looming presence on the trail is the last thing Romney anticipated would come out of Iowa. The Santorum detour poses a significant risk to Romney’s nomination. Romney’s inability to enthuse his party means he is vulnerable to somebody like Santorum.

Should Santorum use his moment in the Iowa victory spotlight to formulate an image of an electable candidate who can connect with voters in a way no Republican has in this race so far, Santorum can damage and possibly derail Romney’s campaign.

Romney’s long tiring plod to victory is far from over.

### 

Graham Gillette can be reached at grahamgillette@gmail.com


This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.