Republican Grumbling is Hurting the GOP and Other Nerdy Thoughts

I unwittingly started an interesting conversation via my Facebook page today when I posted a link to the latest unemployment figures. I realize you now think I must be the most boring and annoying Facebook friend of all time, but I march forward undaunted.

The November figures released today showed national unemployment dropped to 10%. Forgetting for a moment that there was a day not too long ago when we couldn’t have imagined celebrating a double digit unemployment figure, I said something simplistic like, “here’s some good news.”

Some of my Republican leaning friends grumbled about the numbers, questioned whether or not the figures were seasonally adjusted and speculated that the increase was in government, not private sector jobs. (Yes, they are seasonally adjusted. No, I do not know the breakdown of government and private sector jobs.) In back and forth conversations on the page, on the phone and via email an interesting conundrum unraveled.

One would expect fervent Republicans would dismiss these numbers, attack the President and grouse about the creep of socialism they portend. But, like the GOP leadership and the talking heads on TV, my friends stopped short of articulating what could be the keys to a winning argument for their Party; 1) this one month snapshot may be rendered meaningless over time once the stimulus dollars are all spent and 2) a fiscal policy that frees the private sector will serve our nation better in the long term than the one put in place this year. Instead, they gloomily twiddle about the numbers, Obama, and fail to offer much of an alternative solution. Why? Because, making such an argument is not in the Republican’s Party’s short term interest. Let me explain.

The economy was in freefall a year ago. If we could play with history and make it so the GOP had taken power in January, my guess is that Republicans would have done a few things differently. If they were true to their mantra, they would have let the free market bounce back on its own with a passionate plea that long run economic stability is built by allowing the private sector to flourish. I am not taking sides here; maybe this would have been good and maybe not.

What is likely is that without the billions in stimulus money, there would be fewer jobs today. Unemployment would still be on the rise, because those jobs created by the government infusion would not exist – fewer auto workers would have jobs, there would be fewer public works projects, etc. Plus, any tax incentive or other programs established by a Republican dominated government would still be working through the system. The bottom line is fewer jobs would have been created at this point.

The free market plan would have taken longer and that is painful for Republicans to admit. But, they should. By doing so, Republicans might be able to demonstrate the stimulus and other Democratic programs are temporary gimmickry that will hurt us in the long run, and that good public policy is less about short term manipulation of the marketplace and more about a long term plans for growth and prosperity. The problem? The Republican brand of medicine tastes a little yucky going down and its effects take longer to be felt. The Democratic medicine gives quicker relief and the side effects are not easily seen when administered. With the Republican plan the economy would have gotten worse before it could get better. With the Democrat’s a few jobs were created now by taking out a mortgage which may limit job growth in the future.

This incredibly nerdy Facebook exchange reminded me why I remain frustrated by the Republican Party. The GOP spends too much of its time complaining about what has happened and trying to make those in power look bad, and too little laying out an alternative vision that shows a better way. They would have to admit their cures may taste bad initially and that may turn a few people off, but it just might allow them to show an alternative route to health that the populace can embrace. Instead, they grumble and after rereading this post so do I it seems.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

America’s Racial Divide is Clearly Visible in NYTimes Interactive Unemployment Graph

The New York Times produced an interesting and interactive graph that dissects the national jobless rate as of September 30, 2009. Visitors to the site can select different categories to see who the jobless in America are.

Some of the results are slightly surprising – White women, ages 25-44, with college degrees have the lowest unemployment rate, 3.6%. This is slightly better than White men in the same age group, 3.9%. In fact, women seemed to have held on pretty well in the current down economy - overall women do better than men on this scale, 7.6% to 9.5%.

However, some of the results are troubling, if not shocking – the segment with the highest unemployment rate, a whopping 48.5%, is Black men, ages 15-24, without a high school diploma. More than anything this graph paints a picture of America, the great melting pot, still sitting atop the stove simmering with some groups faring better in the broth than others.

The New York Times spots the overall unemployment rate in this study at 8.6%. Whites have the lowest unemployment rate, 7.2%. African Americans have the highest, 13.9%. Hispanics do slightly better with, 11.3%. The unemployment rate drops as the groups get older, as it does as the level of education increases.

Racial diparity may have improved some recently, but this graph indicates the U.S. is still a ways from reaching equality. While White, male, college graduates, ages 25 to 44 hold a jobless rate of 3.9%; Black, male, college graduates in the same age group hold an 8.3% jobless rate. While not as striking, the same correlation holds between White and Hispanics and between Whites and all other races.

We will have reached equality when a chart like this is rendered useless because the differences between groups are so small they represent nothing more than statistical anomalies. And, while there is some good news about equality to be mined in these disappointing unemployment figures, we are wise to note that we still live in a country where the color of your skin impacts your ability to climb the ladder of success.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.