Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie told Iowa Watchdog he is considering a gubernatorial bid. If he becomes a candidate he will likely face across town rival state Senator Jack Hatch in a democratic primary.
Mayor Cownie has been courting both Republicans and Democrats in recent weeks and appears ready to jump into the fray. Cownie is telling political operatives and friends he sees Branstad as vulnerable and Hatch as unelectable.
Cownie has not formed an exploratory effort or begun to actively campaign, but he is giving the race serious consideration. Cownie tells me he thinks his record will appeal to Iowans. He believes Hatch and Branstad are state political insiders and Cownie believes he will be viewed as the person with executive experience capable of bringing something new to the Terrace Hill.
Meanwhile, Hatch, an all-but-officially-announced candidate for governor, held a news conference at his Des Moines office Wednesday where he detailed plans for a fact-finding tour that may lead to a formal announcement. His ability to fundraise is part of that mission. Hatch estimated at his event that a successful race will require $6 to $8 million and said his campaign will need to raise at least $1 million by the end of the year to be considered viable.
The winner of democratic primary will face incumbent Branstad, a hard-running campaigner and a master fund-raiser. Branstad has never lost an election and a recent Quinnipiac University Poll showed nearly half of Iowans approve of his job performance. Branstad will easily raise $10 million for his campaign. However, Branstad may not be Cownie or Hatch’s toughest obstacle.
The Des Moines problem. With Bob Ray being the exception, those hailing from Des Moines are rarely elected to statewide office. The political geography has shifted since 1968 when Ray was first elected governor, but Iowans have not elected another from the capital city to a state post since Ray held office. Des Moines credentials have historically been more detrimental than helpful. In order to win, Cownie and Hatch need to establish credibility outside the economic area once referred to as the golden circle.
Democrat political consultant and former Senator Harkin staffer Jeff Link says Des Moines based candidates face a challenge others do not. “It’s difficult for a candidate from Des Moines to demonstrate an appreciation for rural Iowa’s agricultural tradition and economy” said Link.
Granted, Iowa’s population has become more urban since the Ray years. Hatch and Cownie hope to rely on a substantial Des Moines base and build a working coalition of others to balance rural voters. And, Cownie argues he will be able to garner more of the Des Moines vote than Hatch. Yet, both men’s chances may be harmed if they split their home base.
It is fair to assume the face-off of these two urban lions will benefit Branstad more than anyone else. Branstad will use the Des Moines rivalry to his advantage by telling the rest of Iowa he is the safe choice – the candidate who best understands them.
Strategist Link puts it this way, “As mayor, Frank Cownie has name ID and a record on which to base a statewide campaign. But, both Sen. Hatch and Mayor Cownie will have to show they can reach out beyond home base to get an edge statewide.”
Demonstrating that reach will be the tough part. A Hatch vs. Cownie campaign will put Democrats in an interesting position. Neither man is seen as a party stalwart. Both have operated on the fringes of party politics during their careers. If current party chair and state representative Tyler Olson of Cedar Rapids also becomes a candidate, party regulars may become further divided. While Hatch and Cownie are known outside of Des Moines, Olson’s name ID is no higher. None of these potential candidates have a meaningful organization in place.
Hatch is right; money is one of the critical exploratory tests. It isn’t the most important.
Neither Hatch nor Cownie will be able to claim they are serious candidates until they put together campaign teams in places geographically and philosophically detached from Des Moines. This may not be Bob Ray’s Iowa, but it remains a place where businessmen and politicians from the capital rarely receive enthusiastic support.
Jack Hatch and Frank Cownie are hard working proven candidates who know something about tough races. Two things are for sure. The 2014 Democrat gubernatorial campaign will be hard fought should they both enter the fray and Terry Branstad can’t wait to watch it.
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Graham Gillette can be reached at grahamgillette@gmail.com
An essay similar to this was published as a Iowa Watchdog essay.
An essay similar to this was published as a Iowa Watchdog essay.
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