I love Election Day, but it is well known that I am a nerd. I was the 9th person to vote at my precinct. Like any election, today’s primary brings to close a season of posturing. There will be winners and there will be losers. Some candidates will try to claim they have a mandate and others will retreat to consider their next move.
This brings us to Bob Vander Plaats, the Republican Primary for Governor and my first prediction. If Vander Plaats gets close to 40% of the vote in today’s race, he will seriously consider an independent run for the office.
In many ways, the Vander Plaats folks would prefer a Culver victory over one for Branstad. They do not like Culver, but Branstad’s victory in November would limit options for them in years to come. The heart of the battle in Iowa is not about winning an office, but for who controls of the Republican/conservative/Tea Party cause. Vander Plaats is not ready to go into that good night and Branstad puts a significant dent into the aspirations of many who support Vander Plaats.
The most interesting field on this year’s ballot is the Republican primary to select a challenger for Leonard Boswell. My prediction number two is that Brad Zaun will do better than many expect. It may not be enough for him to snatch victory tonight without going to convention, but Zaun will be in a strong position. I cannot say if he will be able to garner the votes he needs to win at convention, but I give Zaun the edge in a convention match-up. He is a bulldog when it comes grassroots, one-on-one campaigning. Dave Funk has impressed many in this campaign and he has won the right to play a significant role in Party activities going forward, but this will not be his race. Jim Gibbons may be the victor in the end. He has raised a ton of money and played the game pretty well. He lacks the fire many conservatives would like to see in 2010, but do not count him out yet.
The Democratic race to challenge Chuck Grassley is unremarkable. Roxanne Conlin will prevail today, but she is going to lose to Grassley in November unless she significantly ups her game. She is capable of doing so, but her campaign is going to have to significantly improve from the snoozefest that was her primary effort.
That’s it for now. Go vote today and let the general election fun begin!
This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.
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