Vander Plaats may not be done, Conlin may be on a trip to nowhere

I love Election Day, but it is well known that I am a nerd. I was the 9th person to vote at my precinct. Like any election, today’s primary brings to close a season of posturing. There will be winners and there will be losers. Some candidates will try to claim they have a mandate and others will retreat to consider their next move.

This brings us to Bob Vander Plaats, the Republican Primary for Governor and my first prediction. If Vander Plaats gets close to 40% of the vote in today’s race, he will seriously consider an independent run for the office.

In many ways, the Vander Plaats folks would prefer a Culver victory over one for Branstad. They do not like Culver, but Branstad’s victory in November would limit options for them in years to come. The heart of the battle in Iowa is not about winning an office, but for who controls of the Republican/conservative/Tea Party cause. Vander Plaats is not ready to go into that good night and Branstad puts a significant dent into the aspirations of many who support Vander Plaats.

The most interesting field on this year’s ballot is the Republican primary to select a challenger for Leonard Boswell. My prediction number two is that Brad Zaun will do better than many expect. It may not be enough for him to snatch victory tonight without going to convention, but Zaun will be in a strong position. I cannot say if he will be able to garner the votes he needs to win at convention, but I give Zaun the edge in a convention match-up. He is a bulldog when it comes grassroots, one-on-one campaigning. Dave Funk has impressed many in this campaign and he has won the right to play a significant role in Party activities going forward, but this will not be his race. Jim Gibbons may be the victor in the end. He has raised a ton of money and played the game pretty well. He lacks the fire many conservatives would like to see in 2010, but do not count him out yet.

The Democratic race to challenge Chuck Grassley is unremarkable. Roxanne Conlin will prevail today, but she is going to lose to Grassley in November unless she significantly ups her game. She is capable of doing so, but her campaign is going to have to significantly improve from the snoozefest that was her primary effort.

That’s it for now. Go vote today and let the general election fun begin!

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

Three in Third District Improve Republican Hopes in Iowa

Sometimes it feels good to be proven wrong.

I have said many times that both political parties in Iowa lack solid candidates. My favorite sports analogy was to say neither has a deep bench. However, it looks like the Republicans had a few star players hiding in the locker room I did not know about. I watched the Republican debate for the Third Congressional District this morning. The GOP has three well spoken, thoughtful and prepared candidates vying to face Rep. Leonard Boswell in November. Dave Funk, Brad Zaun and Jim Gibbons are all capable of putting together a strong general election effort. Too bad Republican Party officials didn’t talk them into running for different jobs instead of facing each other.

I have known Brad Zaun for many years and have always liked his style. He is confident and comes off as sincere. He is a proven hard worker who understands how to win elections. Zaun did well in today’s debate and scored a few points that play to Republican voters. He also showed his every guy style that will win over some independents and others, should he have the chance.

Jim Gibbons has the support of many powerful people and appears up to the job. He has impressed many with his fundraising prowess. He did not stumble today, but he did not win any new voters either (if there is any chance they were actually watching). He seems comfortable playing the moderate in this field of seven candidates, but he failed to give a compelling argument for why somebody should vote for him. He walks away from this debate unscathed and has the persona and ability to be a contender now or in a future contest, but he is going to need to up his game a bit.

The real surprise for me was Dave Funk. He was the clear winner of the debate. Funk knows how to take command in such a format and is very good at making his case. His no-nonsense and well articulated style allowed him to position himself as well read and prepared. He would provide an interesting contrast to Boswell who generally seems unfocused in a debate.

Gibbons, Funk and Zaun are three good examples that the Republican bench is improving. The smart leaders in the Party need to make sure that regardless of who wins the District 3 primary in a few weeks, this is not the last Iowans hear from this trio.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.