Friday, July 16, 2010

Branstad and Vander Plaats as Bedfellows may Mean Neither Sleep Well

I was drafting a blog post yesterday about how perennial Iowa gubernatorial candidate and conservative darling Bob Vander Plaats had gone oddly silent. I had been hearing some rumors he was close to making a deal to endorse Terry Branstad, his rival for the Republican nomination. I stopped writing and was going to chase the gossip. Jason Hancock at the Iowa Independent beat me to it.

It smells like there is a deal in the works.

The Background

I predicted shortly after the polls opened on primary election day that should Vander Plaats get 40% or more of the vote, he would seriously consider continuing his campaign as an independent. He met that threshold and has been publicly and not-so-publicly considering a run since. After challenging nominee Terry Branstad’s choice for a running mate, Kim Reynolds, at convention and losing with numbers eerily similar to what he received in the primary, Vander Plaats has been quiet. Too quiet, for a guy who is about to re-re-re-re-launch a campaign.

The Score

Should they reach a deal, Branstad gets many of the conservatives off his back and Vander Plaats gets to say he stared at the big, bad nominee and made him blink first. In the post I was drafting yesterday, I speculated about how odd it was that Branstad was still campaigning to the right. He has talked about social issues such as immigration and same-sex marriage, when I would think he would be looking to issues that attract the broader general election voters. I mused it was like Branstad couldn’t stop thinking about Vander Plaats. After talking to Hancock and reading his Iowa Independent story, I now see Branstad couldn’t. A deal was in the works. He is trying to appease Vander Plaats and team by saying things they want to hear.

My Take

This is still Branstad’s race to lose. Chet Culver is facing incredibly stiff odds. Branstad does not need the far right, but he is the consummate politician, unwilling to leave much to chance. If he can get a few more on the right to support him, he has to entice fewer of those in the middle come November. The good news for Branstad is that in any other year he might alienate crucial middle of the road voters with this move, but with such a weak opponent there is less to worry about. The downside is Branstad will continue to pay the Vander Plaats’ bill after the election when he is trying to govern. Getting in bed with some social conservatives may make for a few tough nights’ sleep over the next four years.

As for Vander Plaats, he better make sure whatever job, concession or promises he is made by the Branstad folks are well-spelled out and made public. Promises made behind the closed doors of a campaign office often die quick and silent deaths.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

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