Tell the Truth Terry? Culver Misses Again.

Governor Chet Culver had an excellent opportunity to score a few points in the fourth quarter of his lopsided election match-up with former Governor Terry Branstad.  Culver needs it – Branstad is trouncing him in the polls.  As is Culver’s custom, he squandered what should have been an excellent play.

Today was the day Culver and State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald picked to announce the outcome of the budget for the 2010 fiscal year.  They had good news.  According to the Governor and the Treasurer, the State of Iowa ended a very difficult year with a $335 million surplus.  I am not going to wade into the validity of this number.  Others will debate this for weeks.  Let’s examine how the Culver folks decided to make the announcement.

Most polls, political experts and fifth graders studying social studies will tell you one of Culver’s great deficiencies lies in how voters’ view him as a leader.  This was a moment for Culver to show he was in charge, well versed in the complexities of government budgeting and prove to Iowans their Governor had a firm grasp on the reins of government.  He could anticipate that Branstad would argue about his numbers, but Culver has the advantage of incumbency which gives him the ability to stand with Iowa’s veteran Treasurer, put political squabbling aside and say Iowa is not as bad off as his opponent says it is.

Culver needed to be in charge, more chief executive than politician.  He needed to be seen as the Governor.  Seriousness, honesty and statesmanship should have exuded from his official podium.  He chose instead to take this announcement out of the Governor’s office to the steps of the Capitol, stand behind a placard with a fuzzy black and white photo of Branstad emblazoned with the words “Tell the Truth, Terry” and whine about Branstad.  He traded his gubernatorial moment for one that resembled a mudslinging festival – it kind of sounded like a Tea Party rally for Democrats.

Even the elementary social studies students might have been able to advise the Governor the last thing you want to do is take your positive moment and turn it into one focused on your opponent.  They probably would have also let the Governor know that, from a distance, the comma on his sign was hard to see, turning a request for Branstad to tell the truth into something Branstad might like people to call him, Tell the truth Terry.

Interestingly, the Branstad camp seemed to be taken a bit by surprise by Culver and Fitzgerald’s budget numbers.  The Branstad campaign spit out a media release and sputtered to reporters’ calls with a peculiar “Tell Iowa property owners that the budget is balanced, when today they are on the hook for the largest increase in school property taxes in 30 years” and “tell the laid-off teachers that his budget is balanced.”  Is Branstad saying it doesn’t matter the budget is balanced because property taxes increased?  Instead of sticking with their manta that the state is in debt and it needs to cut spending, they went with it doesn’t matter the budget is balanced and the state should have spent more on teacher salaries.  Odd.

Culver could have told Iowans the state has money in the bank and things may be looking up after all, but he opted to play political games instead.  I would count today as an opportunity lost for both campaigns, which means Branstad will go to bed tonight feeling fairly safe his 19 point lead remains unchanged.

(Contact Graham Gillette at grahamgillette@gmail.com)

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

Google Time Travel Reminds Me Why Culver is in Trouble

Mysterious electronic quirks will result in odd Google search results now and again.  This morning I was looking for articles written this week about Iowa’s race for Governor.  Interestingly, the third result was from nearly a year ago, not this week, and it included a link to something I had written.  Shane Vander Hart’sCaffeinated Thoughts blog was considering Governor Chet Culver’s reelection chances.  I am thankful for the Internet glitch, because it reminded me of a few things and made me question what I was researching in the first place.

My piece dated October 6, 2009 was written in the wake of the Iowa Film Office debacle and after Culver had made a statement at a groundbreaking for a new state building that showed he possessed something less than a firm grasp on how the project was being funded.  The Governor said the project was exempt from the building moratorium he had instituted because the money had been appropriated before the ban.  When a reporter pointed out the building was being funded by a bond issue that was to be repaid with fees collected by the Utilities Board and not general fund dollars subject to the moratorium, the Governor said, “better yet!”  It was another bad moment for Culver.

I speculated that in order to win reelection, Culver was going to have to own up to his mistakes and work to build back the public’s trust.  So far, Culver has done the first part.  He went to the Iowa State Fair and apologized to Iowans and his campaign has aired a commercial with the same theme.  Unfortunately, the Culver team has done next to nothing about winning the voters’ trust.  A year after I wrote my post about what Culver needed to do to win, it is clear he has done little to do so.

I cheekily ended my post a year ago with, “Pretty soon he (Culver) is going to find himself asking voters if they share his vision for the future, or if they want to change course mid-stream.  Here is a hint, Governor.  If the voters answer, ‘better yet,’ you are in big trouble.”

Here we are in the Fall of 2010 and the Culver campaign is in big trouble.

My Google search started because I had just told a Facebook friend that it took more to win an election than saying “at least I am not my opponent.”  Part of Terry Branstad’s challenge to Culver is based on that, but he has staked out a number of strong policy positions and he has a long track record to show how he may behave in office this time.  Culver has not staked out many clear policy positions for his next term, or shown why he will be better than his opponent.

Culver has about 7 weeks to turn his campaign around.  He needs to stop apologizing, stop trying to make Branstad look bad and start demonstrating how he will be a better leader over the next few years than his opponent.  As I examine the ghosts I found on the Internet this morning, it occurs to me Culver may be about a year behind.

(Graham Gillette can be reached at grahamgillette@gmail.com)

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

Middle School is like a Chris Rock Joke

I decided to write this morning’s post at Gateway Market in Des Moines. I wanted to escape the office and pound out something insightful about last night’s primaries in Colorado and Connecticut. I thought Gateway would be a quiet place to write. I was wrong. The place was packed with people and it was hard to concentrate on other states with so much of Iowa and Des Moines talking around and to me. (The blueberry muffin was mighty tasty though.)

Max Knauer was chatting to some folks about his campaign for the Broadlawns Medical Center Board of Trustees, there were Democrat campaign staffers at one table, business folks at a few others, and Des Moines School officials were meeting with a representative of the United Way over coffee in a far corner. A few people stopped at my table to talk about politics and the world. Next to the rain, the main topic was the state of our schools. The approaching start of the school year and yesterday’s rushed vote by Congress to send money for education to the states had many asking, “are we getting our money’s worth from education spending?”

Iowans take pride in our reputation as an educational leader. Much of this reputation is justified, but the high standing is partly due to the fact schools in other parts of this country are failing miserably. Comedian Chris Rock has a classic bit he performs about low expectations; calling yourself a good dad because you take care of your kids, or a good person because you never went to jail is ridiculous. You are SUPPOSED to do the former and NEVER do the latter. Those are minimum standards. The fact most Iowa kids graduate high school, or that most do pretty well in the long run are shockingly low standards when one deconstructs Iowans’ school pride.

In the coming days, students all over Iowa will return to the classroom and teachers will renew the battle to inspire and educate. More than one politician will make strong statements on the campaign trail about his commitment to education and, with teary eyes, try to demonstrate his unwavering commitment to public schools. I won’t paraphrase Chris Rock’s expletive laced comment, but a public servant is supposed to support education. The question to be asked is, “what exactly will you do to support education?”

Yesterday’s passage of the $26 billion aid package for schools will pay for many things. Some teacher jobs will be saved and a whole lot of money will change hands, but will our schools be any better? No, but they won’t be any worse. That, my friends, is not good enough. The middle school curriculum in Des Moines and across the country has not changed much over the years. Every year countless kids walk out of junior high school for good as we collectively look the other way. Most students stay – most of them survive middle school. As Rock would say, “they are supposed to!”

Middle school teacher Andrew Rasmussen will soon be standing in a classroom trying to get through to a bunch of hormone pumping eighth grade social studies students. Last spring, he and his fellow educators were unable to think about much beyond the minimum. They held their breath hoping they wouldn’t lose their jobs in the next round of budget cuts. Finances are a bit better today, but it won’t last. The future still looks grim, but it could be worse, right?

I focus on middle school because we pay the least amount of attention to the middle years and, most important, this is when the most kids are lost to the system. Mr. Rasmussen wants the District to reinstitute a Middle School Study Committee to look into ways to improve junior high. Des Moines has done this before. A lot of noise was made about the committee and recommendations were made with a great flourish. In the end, not much changed in Mr. Rasmussen’s classroom or ones like it all across the city. This time, let’s form the committee and follow through with what comes out of it.

To be successful, the proposed middle school committee must be formed with a clear mandate and have the support of the school district administration, school board, parents and the community. Here’s hoping we can do something more than shake our heads over coffee, or pat ourselves on the back for being better than Alabama or Mississippi. Let’s urge our school leaders to listen to Mr. Rasmussen and create a plan to do more than create a committee to make ourselves feel better. Perhaps we can move beyond a Chris Rock punch line and doing the minimum when it comes to public education.

(Another blueberry muffin would be wrong, wouldn’t it?)

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

Vander Plaats’ Quiet Period to End

Perennial gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats is holding a press conference at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow at the State Capitol. Vander Plaats has been mulling an independent run since losing to Terry Branstad in the primary. Branstad and Vander Plaats have tried to come to some agreement, but tomorrow’s affair gives this observer the impression the bridge to reconciliation could not be built.

Vander Plaats could surprise me, but the fact he made the announcement independent of the Branstad camp makes me think he is about to stick it to the former governor one more time. Vander Plaats may or may not announce his candidacy tomorrow, but I am guessing he is about to vent some conservative frustration about the Republican nominee while he still has the semblance of a podium at which to stand. If Vander Plaats runs, he will be a thorn in Branstad’s side and one can argue Vander Plaats will mostly help Chet Culver by entering the fray. However, I still see the race as Branstad’s to lose even with a third party candidate on the ballot.

Conservatives like Vander Plaats are turning up the heat on two issues these days, immigration and marriage. Recent federal court rulings have angered them, making it likely these issues will drive much of the forthcoming election cycle. Last week a federal judge temporarily blocked key parts of Arizona’s new immigration law and yesterday a federal judge struck down California’s voter-approved ban on same-sex marriage. It is hard to imagine Vander Plaats walking away with these issues boiling on the front burner of the right wing stove top. He’ll want to stay in that kitchen, trust me. Tomorrow we will find out how he plans to do so.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

Branstad and Vander Plaats as Bedfellows may Mean Neither Sleep Well

I was drafting a blog post yesterday about how perennial Iowa gubernatorial candidate and conservative darling Bob Vander Plaats had gone oddly silent. I had been hearing some rumors he was close to making a deal to endorse Terry Branstad, his rival for the Republican nomination. I stopped writing and was going to chase the gossip. Jason Hancock at the Iowa Independent beat me to it.

It smells like there is a deal in the works.

The Background

I predicted shortly after the polls opened on primary election day that should Vander Plaats get 40% or more of the vote, he would seriously consider continuing his campaign as an independent. He met that threshold and has been publicly and not-so-publicly considering a run since. After challenging nominee Terry Branstad’s choice for a running mate, Kim Reynolds, at convention and losing with numbers eerily similar to what he received in the primary, Vander Plaats has been quiet. Too quiet, for a guy who is about to re-re-re-re-launch a campaign.

The Score

Should they reach a deal, Branstad gets many of the conservatives off his back and Vander Plaats gets to say he stared at the big, bad nominee and made him blink first. In the post I was drafting yesterday, I speculated about how odd it was that Branstad was still campaigning to the right. He has talked about social issues such as immigration and same-sex marriage, when I would think he would be looking to issues that attract the broader general election voters. I mused it was like Branstad couldn’t stop thinking about Vander Plaats. After talking to Hancock and reading his Iowa Independent story, I now see Branstad couldn’t. A deal was in the works. He is trying to appease Vander Plaats and team by saying things they want to hear.

My Take

This is still Branstad’s race to lose. Chet Culver is facing incredibly stiff odds. Branstad does not need the far right, but he is the consummate politician, unwilling to leave much to chance. If he can get a few more on the right to support him, he has to entice fewer of those in the middle come November. The good news for Branstad is that in any other year he might alienate crucial middle of the road voters with this move, but with such a weak opponent there is less to worry about. The downside is Branstad will continue to pay the Vander Plaats’ bill after the election when he is trying to govern. Getting in bed with some social conservatives may make for a few tough nights’ sleep over the next four years.

As for Vander Plaats, he better make sure whatever job, concession or promises he is made by the Branstad folks are well-spelled out and made public. Promises made behind the closed doors of a campaign office often die quick and silent deaths.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

Zaun is a Bulldog. Vander Plaats has yet to Exit.

Brad Zaun, the Bulldog

Brad Zaun proved he knows how to out-work and out-maneuver his opponents, yet again. Zaun owes his overwhelming victory to lopsided and huge Polk County numbers. This demonstrates he will have to work hard to win voters in the rest of the District when he faces Leonard Boswell. However, Boswell should be nervous about Zaun’s ability to run strong in the District’s largest county and to pick up support from Democrats and Independents who are tired of business as usual. Brad Zaun is about to give Leonard Boswell the race of his career. I give Zaun the edge. Boswell has never faced such a tenacious challenger.

The Race for Governor may turn out to be a Three-way Match-up

Bob Vander Plaats got the 40% I said he would need to consider an independent bid for Governor. His remarks from the podium last night indicate he is mulling it over.

Vander Plaats said he ran because “It’s been clear to us for some time that this state needs new leadership, that the leadership is failing this state…” As one who repeatedly painted former Governor Branstad as one of these failed leaders, Vander Plaats made no effort to say he no longer was lumping Branstad in this group.

The telltale signs Vander Plaats was keeping his candidacy alive for a while longer were in the next part of his remarks, “So, tonight, I called former Governor Branstad just a little while ago and I congratulated him on his victory. And, to be clear, Gov. Branstad and I both know that we had some differences in this primary. And, after a late night, it’s probably not right now where it’s just going to be raving endorsements, but what we’ve agreed to do is to sit down and to discuss our differences and get them all out on the table so that it is our hope and our goal to unify our party, but it is my hope and my goal beyond that to unify a state around leadership that the State of Iowa desperately needs.”

Vander Plaats conceded Branstad won the primary, but Vander Plaats stopped there. He set the stage for a meeting to discuss differences and said they have a shared purpose to unify the Republican Party. However, the next line is interesting. Vander Plaats drops the “we” and says it is his goal, “beyond that,” to unify a state around leadership desperately needed. If, in Vander Plaats view, Branstad is not able to be the great unifier, look for Vander Plaats to campaign on.

Branstad is a shrewd politician. He will meet with Vander Plaats. Vander Plaats will bring to the table a list of demands. If Vander Plaats is not appeased and he feels he can raise the funds to stay in the race, he will announce his independent campaign. Vander Plaats may run as the alternative to Culver and Branstad by painting them both as incumbents with failed records. This is a long shot strategy, but as a three time primary loser, Vander Plaats has shown an obstinacy to continue campaigning regardless of the fact the odds are long.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

Dull Republican Gubernatorial Debate Changes Nothing

On Tuesday I said that sometimes it feels good to be proven wrong. I praised Dave Funk, Brad Zaun and Jim Gibbons for breathing some new life and, dare I say it, a little excitement into the primary campaign. They had me rethinking my earlier statement that neither party had anything (or anybody) fresh to offer voters. Today I watched the Republican gubernatorial debate. There wasn’t anything fresh or exciting about this trio.

First, the debate was poorly conceived. The panelists asking questions lobbed mostly softball questions that did nothing to probe where the candidates differed. Asking these three GOP candidates to express their stances on abortion is like asking National Rifle Association members if Americans should be able to carry guns. There was a “lightning round” where the candidates were supposed to respond yes or no to convoluted and complex questions. The purpose of a debate is to hear how the candidates respond, not one word answers to a reporter’s “litmus test” issues list. It was an hour mostly wasted.

Second, it was obvious today that Terry Branstad, Rod Roberts and Bob Vander Plaats are coasting to the finish line. Terry Branstad deftly swatted back Bob Vander Plaats’ attacks. It was easy for Branstad to do. He had heard every line before. Vander Plaats has not come up with anything new to say since Branstad entered the race. This is Vander Plaats’ third attempt at bat for the gubernatorial nomination and his fatigue is showing. Rod Roberts was calm and gets points for a few solid answers, but he and Terry Branstad were bending over backwards to show respect for one another. In the ‘ask your opponent a question” round, Branstad asked Roberts who he most admired. Yawn.

I expect the nominee will be Branstad. He has run circles around his opponents in fundraising and looked ever the statesman today. Roberts and Vander Plaats are fast running out of opportunities to distinguish themselves as credible candidates. Yeah, it is never over until the votes are counted, but unless Roberts or Vander Plaats offer something more in the next few days than the lackluster performances I watched today, it will be a Culver Branstad match-up in November.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.

Culver Misses More than a Funeral

Few people know how to maximize a political opportunity as well as Edward Campbell did. Campbell was a political and policy strategist who left an indelible mark on Iowa’s political landscape before he lost his long battle with cancer. He advised candidates like former President Bill Clinton, former Senator John Culver and Culver’s son and Iowa’s Governor Chet Culver. The public relations importance of a large semi-public event like the funeral of a prominent political figure would have been obvious to Campbell. The concept was, apparently, lost on Governor Culver who decided a fundraiser in Boston was acommitment not to be broken.

President Bill Clinton attended the funeral and gave, in his trademark style, a eulogy that connected with those attending and captured the intense personality those who knew Campbell loved and hated at the same time. The Governor’s wife, Mari Culver, gave a speech that, according to one Register report, “probably made a few in attendance regret that she’s not running for anything.” The Governor’s absence was conspicuous, to say the least. If this had been another funeral and Campbell was advising candidate Culver, I have little doubt that an emergency of state would have been deemed by Campbell as the only worthy excuse for Culver to miss the opportunity to rub shoulders with such Democratic notables.

Culver’s opting to travel out of state to raise money and, maybe, to spend time with his father who today was named interim director of Harvard University’s Institute of Politics is yet another in a string of odd travel/appearance choices made by the Governor. As the election year got into full swing, Culver decided to sneak away to Florida to run in his first triathlon. With a tough budget looming and the Legislature in session, the Governor went to visit Iowa troops in Iraq. And, a year or two back, he spent time at the Florida condo of a contributor leaving a sputtering spokesperson to make excuses as to where the Governor was and why the Governor had kept the trip a secret.

The Governor has not done anything illegal. It is his right to run a triathlon, to vacation, to visit Iowa’s brave servicemen and women, and to keep his commitments in Massachusetts instead of attending the Campbell funeral. All of these things are legal and visiting the troops, for one, may even be noble. But, when you look at the decisions together, you have to think a veteran strategist like Edward Campbell might be left scratching his head. Culver is in an uphill battle for re-election and he is making scheduling choices that make him look out-of-touch.

I did not know Edward Campbell personally, so I should not surmise to know what he would think. Even more important, as a guy who is married to a woman who is much more impressive than I am, I know what it is like to be upstaged by a spouse. I am fine with that, but having people wish your wife was on the ballot and that it would be OK if you stayed in Boston eating chowder is probably a bad idea for a candidate who is in a fight for his political life. You would think Culver would have taken the opportunity to pay tribute to his family’s longtime friend and political mentor and be visible at such an event. The people in Boston would have understood and it is likely Mr. Campbell might have been giving Culver an “atta boy” from the great beyond for having learned his political lessons so well.

This entry was first published as a Des Moines Register blog entry.